European Nuclear Powers: Macron's Vision for Enhanced Deterrence Meets German Reservations

Germany - Ekhbary News Agency

European Nuclear Powers: Macron's Vision for Enhanced Deterrence Meets German Reservations

The recent Munich Security Conference once again brought into sharp focus the profound discussions surrounding the future of European security architecture, particularly the role of nuclear deterrence. While French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed his long-held vision for greater European strategic autonomy in defense and a potential expansion of France's nuclear deterrence, Berlin signaled a cautious readiness for dialogue, yet simultaneously set unambiguous boundaries. The debate underscores the divergences and complex challenges facing European partners in developing a coherent defense strategy.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed in Munich that he had initiated preliminary talks with President Macron on European nuclear deterrence. This statement, though a small paragraph in his widely observed keynote speech on transatlantic relations, had significant impact. Particularly revealing was a sentence that did not make it into the publicly delivered speech but was included in the written version for 'Foreign Affairs' magazine: 'We hope to be able to agree on the first concrete steps this year.' This addition suggests a potentially greater openness behind the scenes than public reticence might imply, even if concrete announcements remain absent.

At the same time, the Chancellor drew clear red lines for these discussions. He emphasized 'our legal obligations,' referring to the Two-Plus-Four Treaty and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). These treaties prohibit Germany from possessing its own nuclear weapons and are cornerstones of German foreign and security policy. Furthermore, abrogating the NPT could provoke a global nuclear arms race, a scenario Germany seeks to avoid at all costs. Scholz also made it clear: 'We will not allow zones of differing security to emerge in Europe.' This is an unequivocal message to Eastern EU partners that Germany does not seek an agreement that would exclude them. In fact, such zones already exist de facto, for example, through the stationing of American nuclear weapons in countries like Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy, while others, such as Poland or the Baltic states, are excluded.

Another central point in Scholz's remarks was the strict embedding of any considerations within the existing nuclear sharing arrangements of NATO. With this, he underscored the fundamental importance of the nuclear deterrence guaranteed by the United States, upon which Germany and other NATO states have relied for decades. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) reiterated this stance on the sidelines of the conference, warning against 'double structures and double efforts' that could call into question the deterrence ensured by the Americans. This skepticism from the Ministry of Defense reveals Berlin's cautious attitude towards an independent European nuclear initiative.

On the French side, President Macron presented a 'holistic approach' encompassing conventional and nuclear deterrence. He emphasized the French nuclear doctrine of 'stricte suffisance' (strict sufficiency), which is not based on an adversary's arsenal but on the ability to inflict unacceptable damage on a potential aggressor. Macron recalled that France's vital interests extend beyond its own territory and also concern the fate of its European neighbors – a repeated gesture offering inclusion to Germany and other partners. He named Germany, the United Kingdom, and Sweden as potential partners for a deepened strategic dialogue, which could extend to conventional participation in exercises of nuclear forces.

The coordination of nuclear deterrence in Europe is not a new idea. Last year, the United Kingdom and France adopted the Northwood Declaration, which paved the way for a Europeanization of deterrence. It stated 'that there is no extreme threat to Europe that would not provoke a response from our two nations.' British Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized in Munich the importance of the British role as a nuclear power for the protection of all NATO members and highlighted future bilateral coordination with France. This suggests closer alignment between the two European nuclear powers within the NATO framework, even if France is not a member of NATO's Nuclear Planning Group.

Beyond the nuclear dimension, Macron also stressed the need to advance European armaments projects to strengthen the credibility of deterrence. 'We will only be credible if we are able to procure and produce what we need without foreign constraints,' he warned. He passionately advocated for the success of joint ventures such as the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) to make Europe more independent. The vision is clear: a strengthened European defense must be built on a robust indigenous industrial base and coordinated strategic planning that includes both conventional and nuclear components, without undermining the established transatlantic partnership.

Ekhbary News Agency