Italy's Demographic Winter: Between Desire for Children and Insufficient Support Policies

Italy - Ekhbary News Agency

Italy's Demographic Winter: Between Desire for Children and Insufficient Support Policies

Italy, much like civilizations throughout history, is grappling with an existential challenge: a profound demographic crisis that signals a potential "sunset" for its society if decisive action isn't taken. Recent data, including figures from the National Institute of Statistics (Istat), reveal a worrying decline in birth rates, with deaths far exceeding births. In 2023 alone, Italy recorded just 379,000 births against 661,000 deaths, setting a perilous course where, by 2050, projections indicate one young person for every three elderly individuals.

Historically, demographic downturns, coupled with the creative limitations of leadership facing complex challenges, have been primary drivers of civilizational decline. Epidemics, wars, and invasions may deliver the final blow, but the underlying weakness lies in the inability to maintain a natural balance between births and deaths. In contemporary Italy, this weakness appears in the form of inadequate solutions from political leadership, leading to policies that are insufficient or even counterproductive.

Despite this bleak outlook, data reveals a glimmer of hope: 8 out of 10 Italians express a desire to have children. However, this aspiration is not translating into reality. The organization Save the Children, in its 2024 report, aptly describes Italian women as "tightrope walkers" (equilibriste), highlighting the immense difficulty they face in balancing personal and professional ambitions with the demands of motherhood. This reality begs the critical question: Why does Italy rank so low among EU countries in addressing this emergency? And is the problem solely confined to women?

A deeper analysis is necessary. While migration can help offset population gaps, it does not address the core issue of demographic structure and the workforce balance required to sustain the welfare system. The decline in quality of life is evident in the healthcare and education sectors, both impacted by this demographic imbalance.

To ensure social equilibrium, the total fertility rate should ideally be around two children per woman. In Italy, this rate stands at a mere 1.2, with the average age of first-time mothers at 31.6 years – the highest in Europe, where the average is 29.7 years. This starkly contrasts with other European nations that have successfully reversed similar trends.

Successful European Models:

• France, boasting a higher fertility rate (1.8), has long implemented supportive policies including tax incentives, affordable nursery facilities (nidi), full-day schooling, and encouragement of part-time work for both parents.
• Germany (1.5 children per woman) offers financial support, paid parental leave, and guaranteed access to childcare facilities.
• Finland, despite a dip in 2019 (1.35), reversed its trend through initiatives like childcare vouchers (voucher baby-sitter), tax breaks, and extended parental leave transferable between parents.

These examples demonstrate a shift in European mindset, prioritizing child and family welfare, with a strong emphasis on gender equality in caregiving responsibilities. Italy, conversely, lags significantly behind in this regard.

Italian Policies: Deficiencies and Contradictions

Italy does offer some measures, but they are often insufficient and piecemeal. The 2024 Budget Law mandates 5 months of maternity leave at 80% pay and grants fathers only 10 days of full-pay leave. It introduces a possibility of two additional months for parents (for employees only) at 80% pay until the child turns 12, but this benefit is limited to 2024, decreasing to 60% from 2025. Other measures include the "universal single allowance" (assegno unico universale) ranging from €50 to €200 per child monthly based on income, contribution waivers for mothers with over three children, and a nursery bonus (bonus nido).

However, these aids lack systematic support, are burdened by restrictive and overly bureaucratic criteria, and fail to acknowledge that child-rearing is a shared responsibility. Furthermore, nursery coverage for the 0-3 age group is only 28%, compelling many women to leave their jobs post-childbirth. Italy's family expenditure as a percentage of GDP stands at 1.4%, significantly lower than the EU average of 1.9%, France's 2.2%, and Finland's 2.9%. This disparity underscores the current system's ineffectiveness in supporting families and promoting equality.

The Stark Paradox: Military Spending vs. Supporting Life

Particularly alarming is the stark contrast between the meager investment in family support and the systematic increase in military expenditure. While Article 31 of the Italian Constitution promotes family formation and protects motherhood and childhood, Article 11 renounces war. Yet, recent years have seen a substantial rise in global and regional military spending. In 2023, global military expenditure hit a record $2.443 trillion, with Europe increasing its spending by 16% – the highest since the Cold War. NATO members, including Italy, allocated $1.341 trillion in 2023. Italy's 2024 military budget is projected at €28 billion, an increase of €1.4 billion from the previous year, with approximately €10 billion earmarked for new armaments.

This spending is justified by geopolitical challenges and deterrence strategies. But can this expenditure be truly separated from the necessity of investing in societal "care"? The article poses a rhetorical question: "What use is an electric fence to protect a dilapidated house?" quoting G.K. Chesterton on the power of love as a driver of growth and prosperity. Love for a place, for people, is the bedrock of civilization.

The piece expresses concern over a "will to death" that prioritizes funding war over supporting life, viewing it as a betrayal of the Italian Constitution, founded on peace, dialogue, and the family. A focus on power over life, and increasing military spending at the expense of health and education, is a path history has repeatedly shown leads to further decline.

Addressing Italy's demographic crisis necessitates a fundamental shift in political priorities, a genuine investment in family support, empowering women, ensuring gender equality in caregiving for future generations, and re-evaluating the balance between defense spending and investing in the nation's well-being and future.