Warm Weather Preceded Deadly Lake Tahoe Avalanche, Experts Explain

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Warm Weather Preceded Deadly Lake Tahoe Avalanche, Experts Explain

The recent devastating avalanche that tragically claimed the lives of nine skiers near Lake Tahoe was a direct consequence of a precarious meteorological setup, according to climate scientists. The western United States, including the popular California and Nevada resort area, experienced an exceptionally warm winter, shattering temperature records in many locations. This unseasonable warmth, experts suggest, created the conditions for disaster when followed by a sudden and intense bout of heavy snowfall.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) explained that the prolonged period of warm weather likely caused a partial melt of the snowpack at higher elevations around Castle Peak mountain. This melting would have created a weak, unstable basal layer of snow. Subsequently, a significant dump of fresh snow fell over a short period—with some areas receiving up to three feet in 24 hours and over five feet since Sunday, according to the National Weather Service. "There has been a very sudden switch from warm and dry to very heavy snowfall," Swain noted, suggesting this rapid transition was a critical factor in the avalanche's occurrence.

This specific scenario—a weak, unstable snow base topped with a thick layer of unconsolidated, heavy new snow—is recognized as one of the most dangerous avalanche formation triggers. The avalanche occurred on Tuesday, burying a group of skiers on Castle Peak, an area near the town of Truckee, California, a few miles northwest of Lake Tahoe. Reports confirmed that eight bodies were recovered, with a ninth skier missing and presumed deceased. Six other individuals from the group survived but required rescue via a snowcat due to the severe, blizzard-like conditions that hampered immediate access.

David Reichel, executive director of the Sierra Avalanche Center, which provides crucial avalanche forecasts for the Tahoe-Truckee region, stated that his team had been monitoring the weakening snow surface conditions. "We made several videos discussing these problematic layers over the last week or so," he mentioned, indicating that forecasters were aware of the heightened risk.

Looking ahead, scientists widely anticipate that rising global temperatures due to climate change will lead to an increase in dangerous avalanche events. While a warming climate might intuitively suggest less snow, the reality is more complex. Higher elevations are expected to continue receiving significant snowfall as temperatures remain below freezing, but warmer air can hold more moisture, potentially leading to heavier snowstorms. "The influence of climate change on avalanches is currently under study, but… the likelihood of having these dry and warm conditions preceding a very heavy snowfall has increased in California," Swain elaborated.

This tragic event underscores the profound impact of climate change on natural landscapes and human safety. As weather patterns become more extreme and unpredictable, understanding the interplay between temperature fluctuations and snowfall is critical for mitigating risks in mountainous regions and ensuring the safety of outdoor enthusiasts. The incident serves as a stark reminder of the increasing dangers posed by avalanches in a warming world.

Ekhbary News Agency