The Lunar Frontier or Martian Dream: A Reality Check on Elon Musk's Ambitious Space Settlement Timelines

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The Lunar Frontier or Martian Dream: A Reality Check on Elon Musk's Ambitious Space Settlement Timelines

The perennial debate within space exploration circles—should humanity's inaugural extraterrestrial city be established on the Moon or Mars?—has gained renewed urgency with recent pronouncements from SpaceX founder Elon Musk. For years, Musk was an ardent advocate for Mars, famously dismissing lunar missions as a "distraction" and declaring SpaceX's intention to go "straight to Mars" via his X social-media platform. However, a significant pivot was revealed last week, with Musk announcing a revised strategy: "For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years." This strategic reorientation, driven by a desire for a more immediate and achievable timeline, brings the Moon back into sharp focus as humanity's next potential home.

Yet, the feasibility of either option, particularly within Musk’s ambitious 10-to-20-year window, is rigorously examined in "Becoming Martian," a new book by Rice University evolutionary biologist Scott Solomon. Solomon, a renowned science communicator, delves into the intricate possibilities and formidable perils that could render Musk's extraterrestrial aspirations far more challenging than anticipated. "The more research I did on this topic, and the more labs I visited, and papers I read, and experts I spoke with, what became clear to me is that we have some pretty big gaps in our knowledge, in our understanding of what the reality would be like," Solomon states in a recent podcast interview, underscoring the vast unknowns that still plague long-term space habitation.

While humans have ventured into space for over six decades, accumulating extensive research on short-term spaceflight effects, the understanding of prolonged exposure to the deep space environment remains critically limited. A pivotal study, chronicling NASA astronaut Scott Kelly's 340-day mission aboard the International Space Station, provided invaluable insights, with Kelly himself noting in the foreword to "Becoming Martian" that "Long-term spaceflight takes a toll, physically and psychologically." A primary concern is space radiation, which caused minor chromosomal mutations in Kelly. Future settlers on the Moon or Mars, however, would face significantly higher and more sustained radiation levels without the Earth's protective magnetosphere.

Mitigating radiation risks would necessitate constructing habitats shielded by substantial layers of soil or within natural formations like lava tubes. Solomon references ancient underground cities, such as Derinkuyu in Turkey, where thousands once lived. However, he highlights a crucial distinction: ancient inhabitants could freely emerge to the surface, an option that would be prohibitively dangerous for lunar or Martian settlers. "I don’t really want to go to Mars if I’ve got to be underground all the time," Solomon muses, articulating a profound psychological barrier to perpetual subterranean existence. Furthermore, the romantic notion of terraforming Mars to create an Earth-like atmosphere, while explored in his book, is ultimately deemed "an uphill battle, one that would require continual maintenance," suggesting it's not a quick fix for habitability.

Beyond radiation, the logistics of sustaining life present enormous challenges. Both the Moon and Mars possess reserves of water ice, crucial for survival, but settlers would need to cultivate their own food, moving beyond dependence on Earth-based supply chains. Solomon controversially suggests foregoing livestock, particularly mammals and birds, citing two compelling reasons: competition for scarce resources (advocating for a vegan extraterrestrial diet) and the significant public health risk of zoonotic diseases. "The majority of the infectious disease that we deal with... come from infections that were once infecting animals, and then they switched hosts, and they start infecting humans," he explains, proposing that leaving animals behind could "minimize the chances of having new infectious disease emerge."

Human physiology itself will undergo profound changes. Each settler carries trillions of gut microbes, vital for health, which may need genetic engineering for optimal performance in space. Solomon explores how humans might evolve, potentially becoming more radiation-tolerant, with some researchers investigating genetic modifications using genes from hardy tardigrades to enhance DNA repair. Bone density loss in microgravity is another critical issue; reduced gravity on the Moon or Mars could lead to weaker bones in subsequent generations, making childbirth a "much riskier prospect." Solomon even posits that caesarean sections might become the safest, if not only, viable birth method, with profound implications for the genetic and social fabric of future extraterrestrial societies.

Ultimately, while Elon Musk's vision electrifies the imagination, the scientific and biological realities outlined by Scott Solomon paint a picture of immense complexity. Establishing self-sustaining cities on the Moon or Mars within current timelines demands not just engineering marvels but also a radical re-evaluation of human biology, ecology, and societal structures. The journey to becoming a multi-planetary species is fraught with challenges that extend far beyond rocket science, touching upon the very essence of what it means to be human in an alien world.

Ekhbary News Agency