NBA Finals Odds: Thunder, Nuggets Remain Strong Favorites Midseason

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NBA Finals Odds: Thunder, Nuggets Remain Strong Favorites Midseason

Halfway through the current NBA season, the landscape of favorites for the championship title has remained remarkably stable. The Oklahoma City Thunder are still firmly positioned as the top contenders for the 2025-26 NBA Finals, commanding odds of +130 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Following closely behind are the Denver Nuggets, who are established as the second favorites with odds of +450. These positions represent a slight improvement from their preseason odds of +200 and +650, respectively, indicating a growing confidence in their championship potential among oddsmakers.

The Denver Nuggets, in particular, were a highly popular selection among bettors during the preseason. They attracted the largest volume of bets and the most money across numerous sportsbooks nationwide. Johnny Avello, the Director of Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings, recently informed ESPN that the Nuggets represent a significant liability for the book. This is due to the substantial betting activity they have garnered since the season commenced. Their share of the total betting handle at DraftKings stands at 16%, tying them with the Thunder for the highest on the board. However, the slightly longer odds for Denver translate to a greater potential financial risk for the sportsbook.

Conversely, David Lieberman, the NBA Lead at Caesars Sportsbook, noted that the tightening of odds for the top favorites has inadvertently helped sportsbooks manage their liabilities. "The lower-priced teams, they just don't get bet as much throughout the season," Lieberman explained to ESPN. "The liability doesn't rack up quite as much over the course of the year. So, I would say that those two teams are now out of a big liability status for us now." This suggests that while favorites attract attention, the odds structure can prevent excessive exposure for bookmakers.

The third team initially considered a strong contender, based on preseason odds, was the Cleveland Cavaliers. They entered the season with odds of +650, matching Denver's preseason figure. However, a challenging start to their campaign saw their odds balloon to as high as +3000 at some sportsbooks. The narrative shifted dramatically in early February when the Cavaliers acquired James Harden from the Los Angeles Clippers. Following the trade, the team embarked on an undefeated streak heading into the All-Star break. This resurgence has propelled them back into the third-favorite position, with odds now set at +1200 on DraftKings' board.

While Avello acknowledged that the sportsbook had to adjust Cleveland's odds due to Harden's "quality as a player," both he and other bookmakers express skepticism about his impact on this iteration of the Cavaliers' ability to contend for a championship, particularly given Harden's history in high-stakes playoff games. "I mean, he will help, but how drastically he'll help [is the question]," Lieberman commented. "But I think as far as bettors go, I don't blame them for getting in on that when their price was a little bit higher. I do think on paper they are maybe one of the top choices in the East, and maybe they just needed a little bit of a shake-up."

Public bettors have shown a renewed faith in the Harden-led Cavaliers. In February, they attracted the second-highest percentage of Finals winner bets at BetMGM, accounting for 11.9% of the market, trailing only the San Antonio Spurs at 13.1%. Cleveland also led the Eastern Conference winner market in terms of money wagered at BetMGM during the month, capturing 30.9% of the handle.

A team generating significant public buzz is the Detroit Pistons, currently leading the Eastern Conference standings. They are ranked fifth in DraftKings' Finals winner odds at +1500 and have attracted the second-most wagers (19%) to win the conference. BetMGM data indicates the Pistons received the most tickets (25.3%) for the Eastern Conference championship in February, while TheScore Bet reported they garnered the most money (18.6%) for the NBA Finals during a similar timeframe.

"The Pistons have been popular all year and are without question a force in the East, but those top teams all continue to draw action," Adrian Horton, the sportsbook's Senior Director of North American Sports Trading, stated via email. The other leading Eastern Conference contenders, the New York Knicks (+1300) and the Boston Celtics (+1500), continue to be perennial public favorites, largely due to their prominent market status. DraftKings reports that New York leads the Eastern Conference championship market in both bet count and handle, and ranks third behind Oklahoma City and Denver for overall Finals betting action. Both the Knicks and Celtics also feature prominently in BetMGM's top five betting markets for February.

On the television show "Get Up," commentators Kendrick Perkins and Brian Windhorst recently discussed topics such as "tanking" strategies, the face of the NBA, and other mid-season narratives.

Shifting focus to the Most Valuable Player (MVP) race, the odds board mirrors the Finals market with few surprises at the top. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic remain the prohibitive favorites, listed at -210 and +300, respectively, according to DraftKings lines. However, a significant factor complicating their MVP candidacies, as has been the case in recent seasons, is the NBA's 65-game eligibility rule. Due to various injuries sustained during the campaign, Gilgeous-Alexander can afford to miss 10 games and still qualify, while Jokic has only one game to spare. Luka Dončić (+2000) can miss five games, and Victor Wembanyama (+3500) can miss three games to remain eligible.

Lieberman expressed surprise at the level of public support for Jokic following his return to play on January 30th, given his precarious position regarding the minimum game requirement. He anticipates that one of the two frontrunners will likely secure the award, but acknowledges that if neither qualifies, the race could become significantly more unpredictable. Beyond the aforementioned Wembanyama, players like Cade Cunningham (+1400) and Jaylen Brown (+5000) have also attracted considerable betting action at longer odds throughout the season. This situation places sportsbooks in a position where they are rooting for their favored players to remain healthy down the stretch. "Those guys we're a little bit not in great shape on, but when you look at the two chalks, Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic, we are in good shape," Avello remarked.

Ekhbary News Agency