Middle East: Is Putin Profiting from Soaring Regional Tensions?

Paris - Ekhbary News Agency

Middle East: Is Putin Profiting from Soaring Regional Tensions?

While Russia has been militarily embroiled in Ukraine since February 2022, a new flashpoint in the Middle East, characterized by US-Israeli strikes against Iran and the looming threat of a Strait of Hormuz closure, paradoxically appears to offer Moscow unexpected opportunities. This escalation, which has triggered a dramatic surge in global hydrocarbon prices, could indeed constitute an economic and strategic boon for the Kremlin, whose finances are severely strained by Western sanctions. But is this volatile situation a net gain for Vladimir Putin, or does it conceal long-term geopolitical risks?

The equation is complex. On one hand, Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter and a major player in the gas market, sees its energy revenues potentially boosted by this instability. Every increase in the price of a barrel of crude oil is a lifeline for the federal budget, essential for financing the war effort in Ukraine. Global reliance on hydrocarbons, exacerbated by supply fears in a region as critical as the Middle East, places Russia in a position of relative strength. The prospect of even a partial and temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a vital passage for a fifth of the world's oil – is enough to send markets into a frenzy and drive prices upwards.

Vera Grantseva, a political scientist and lecturer at Sciences Po Paris, highlights this dynamic: «Instability in the Middle East diverts international attention from Ukraine, which is an indirect victory for Putin. Moreover, rising energy prices strengthen his ability to keep his economy afloat in the face of sanctions. It's a dilemma for the West: either stabilize the Middle East at the risk of reducing economic pressure on Russia, or allow tensions to persist with unpredictable consequences for the global economy.» This analysis sheds light on the complexity of current geopolitical interconnections.

Beyond the purely economic aspect, tensions in the Middle East offer Russia a diplomatic and strategic lever. Moscow maintains ambivalent but pragmatic relations with Iran, a key partner in the region, particularly in Syria. The strengthening of ties with Tehran, already visible through military and technological exchanges, could intensify in the face of perceived common Western hostility. Russia can position itself as a potential mediator, or at least an indispensable actor, in resolving these conflicts, seeking to weaken American and European influence in the region.

However, this situation is not without risks for Russia. A major escalation in the Middle East could further destabilize global markets, not only in terms of energy prices but also by disrupting global supply chains and reigniting inflation. A global recession, triggered by a major energy crisis, would ultimately affect demand for Russian hydrocarbons, even at elevated prices. Furthermore, too direct an involvement or too strong support for Iran could lead to diplomatic repercussions and additional sanctions, although Russia is already one of the most sanctioned countries in the world.

The impact on the balance of power must also be considered. If the United States were to become more deeply entrenched in the Middle East, it could weaken its ability to support Ukraine, which would be a direct advantage for Russia. In parallel, China, a major energy consumer, observes the situation with concern, as a prolonged surge in prices could hinder its economic growth, a factor Moscow cannot ignore given Beijing's importance as an energy client and strategic partner.

In conclusion, instability in the Middle East offers Vladimir Putin a series of short-term tactical and economic advantages, primarily through increased oil revenues and the diversion of international attention. Nevertheless, these gains are intrinsically linked to a highly unpredictable region and can come with significant risks, notably a global economic destabilization that could ultimately harm Russian interests. A war in Iran, should it escalate, would not produce an obvious «winner,» but rather an actor capable of maneuvering in a chaos whose repercussions remain uncertain for all protagonists.

Ekhbary News Agency