Mostafa Bakry Unveils Critical US-Iran Conflict Scenarios on Extra News, Highlights Geopolitical Shifts

Cairo - Ekhbary News Agency

In an in-depth analysis of the escalating crisis between the United States and Iran, prominent journalist Mostafa Bakry, during a special interview with TV presenter Kholoud Zahran on the "Ahdath Al Sa'a" program on "Extra News" channel, revealed the most dangerous anticipated scenarios for this confrontation. He shed light on its complex geopolitical dimensions and the motives of the key parties involved.

Bakry asserted that when US President Donald Trump announced to the American public that Iran had been forced to open the strait, he did not fully grasp that matters remained firmly in Iran's hands. He explained that, from Iran's perspective, their principle is: "If you attack, that aggression will be met with a response," indicating Iran's readiness for confrontation and retaliation against any escalation.

Iran's Hidden Strength and Trump's Predicament

Bakry added that Iran's recent movements suggest that Tehran possesses undisclosed elements of power and weaponry, a topic that has recently surfaced. Conversely, he noted that Trump is striving to reassure the American public of major victories, accusing him of manipulating the stock market and other sectors to achieve this. He pointed out that Trump aims to deliver a "large financial gift" to Americans, which was one of the primary reasons for his election.

Bakry clarified that Trump faces a real dilemma, as a significant portion of the American public is angry about this war. With the midterm elections approaching in November, Trump is risking the future of the Republicans and finds himself compelled to seek new authorization for war from Congress within 60 days. These pressures are driving him to seek an "illusory victory" to appease his electoral base, such as claiming to have "crushed Iran" or "changed the regime," despite the fact that the Iranian system, represented by the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist (Wilayat al-Faqih), remains intact.

Three Dangerous Scenarios Await the Region

Based on this analysis, Mostafa Bakry presented three potential and perilous scenarios for the near future:

Scenario One: Comprehensive Political Agreement Ruled Out

Bakry believes that talk of a comprehensive political agreement, possibly in Addis Ababa or other capitals, is entirely unlikely at present, given the complexities of the situation and the hardened stances of both sides.

Scenario Two: A Temporary Truce

Bakry indicated the possibility of reaching a temporary truce, but he stressed that it would be a truce centered on a partial agreement, not a fragile one. A fragile truce, in his words, would not achieve the desired outcome and would fail to provide the necessary stability.

Scenario Three: Collapse of Talks

Bakry considers the collapse of talks to be entirely plausible, even probable. He warned that such a breakdown would come at a cost to both Iranians and Americans alike, portending potential escalation and severe repercussions for the region and the world.

Changing Traditional Power Dynamics and the Rise of a Multipolar World Order

Bakry also touched upon the current divergence between the Revolutionary Guard and the political system in Iran, with one tending to be more hardline than the other on certain issues. He affirmed the reality that "the possession of force will not necessarily achieve political goals," noting that the traditional power equation has significantly changed. Tanks and planes are no longer the sole determinants; technology and cyber warfare have emerged as crucial elements in modern conflicts.

Mostafa Bakry concluded his analysis by pointing to the geopolitical developments in the region and their impact on the balance of power, which portend new security arrangements and a fragile multipolar global security system. He explained that the world had long relied on a unipolar system, where decisions were made in Washington. Now, China and Russia have become very important actors, in addition to the rise of regional tripartite or quadrilateral powers such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. These new forces have dispersed and established their presence in the region, and their influence will be reckoned with in the coming period, reshaping the map of global and regional influence.